BAKU IS GEARING up to host COP29 in November, an event being prioritised by Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s authoritarian leader—not due to environmental concerns, but for image management. Over 90% of Azerbaijan’s exports are oil and gas, and its economy remains undiversified. The country’s serious environmental issues have never been a priority for the regime.

So why the sudden desire to host this global event? Quite simply, Mr Aliyev is interested in laundering his reputation, which has been stained by two decades of authoritarian rule, blatant corruption (repeatedly exposed through diligent work of brave investigative journalists and via Wikileaks and the Panama Papers), and a disdain for the human rights and political liberties of the citizens of Azerbaijan. It certainly does not help his global image that in February this year Mr Aliyev declared himself, through blatantly fraudulent elections, president for the fifth consecutive time.

For Mr Aliyev, hosting COP29 is a prime opportunity to exploit the international prestige bestowed upon a host state. It is a chance to present Baku as a modern city and Azerbaijan as a rapidly developing country.

The government is in a rush to perfect a Potemkin village ahead of the summit. Recently constructed roads are being made even smoother, while facades, parks and entertainment centres undergo frantic renovations. Any site that conference attendees might visit is receiving a facelift.

Mr Aliyev hopes that Baku’s polished image and Azerbaijan’s participation in global climate negotiations will distract from his regime’s darker side: more than 300 political prisoners, a crushed media and civil society, and the absence of fundamental political freedoms like free speech, freedom of assembly and due process.

The Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA), which I lead, is facing intense repression due to its persistent opposition to Mr Aliyev’s authoritarian regime. In recent years more than 50 members have been imprisoned and hundreds of activists have faced short-term “administrative” detentions. Since 2006 I have been in effect banned from travelling abroad, as the government unlawfully refuses to renew my passport, curbing my ability to engage in diplomatic visits. Then, last month, a special criminal case was opened against me on charges of so-called defamation. This crackdown is part of the regime’s broader effort to silence any opposition.

Earlier this year Azerbaijan held parliamentary elections under blatantly fraudulent conditions. And as the leader of the PFPA I am now facing arrest based on ludicrous charges. How did we get here?

When Azerbaijan recently liberated the lands that it lost to Armenia in the 1990s, its people had high hopes that a peace agreement would soon be signed between the two neighbours. Azerbaijanis were hopeful that the process of democratisation would begin in our country and that the integration of Azerbaijan (as well as the South Caucasus as a whole) into the Euro-Atlantic space would accelerate.

The West is also eager to broker peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with America’s secretary of state, Antony Blinken, convening the foreign ministers of both countries in New York this week in the hope of pushing negotiations towards a successful conclusion.

However, Vladimir Putin and Mr Aliyev view the prospect of lasting peace as a threat to Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus. A resolution would not only diminish Russia’s regional clout but also pave the way for increased Western influence and the spread of democratic reforms in an area long dominated by authoritarian rule. Sensing these risks, Mr Aliyev has recently aligned himself more closely with the Kremlin, favouring continued autocratic governance over rapprochement with the West. His stance reflects a calculated choice: maintaining a firm grip on power and preserving Russia’s strategic foothold in the region, rather than embracing the reforms that a Western-backed peace would inevitably demand.

Mr Putin is currently waging a war of aggression in Ukraine, and would do anything to keep Azerbaijan and the rest of the South Caucasus (that is, Armenia and Georgia) under his control. Mr Aliyev is betting that America is too worried about pushing him closer into Mr Putin’s orbit to intervene, and that the EU will also overlook his actions as long as gas continues to flow into Europe.

But he is on a catastrophic path. Silencing opposition could lead to civil unrest as his regime, unlike wealthy Gulf monarchies, lacks the resources to buy public support. Without an organised civil opposition, Azerbaijan risks political instability.

The PFPA believes that an international event like COP29 should not be used to gloss over the repressions of Azerbaijan’s authoritarian regime. Instead, attendees—politicians, activists and journalists—discussing climate change in Baku should also raise awareness of the political prisoners unjustly detained and suffering in Azerbaijan’s prisons.

Azerbaijan is at a pivotal moment. If allowed true freedom, most Azerbaijanis would opt for democratisation, rooted in the nation’s 1918 parliamentary democracy, before it was incorporated into the Soviet Union. The people seek free elections and the rule of law, yet the authoritarian Aliyev regime instead stifles dissent through mass arrests, bringing Azerbaijan ever closer to Russia and the club of authoritarian heads of state. Azerbaijan’s democratic forces call on the global community not to ignore their fight for democracy and human rights.

Ali Karimli is the leader of the Popular Front Party, Azerbaijan’s main opposition party. He was Secretary of State between 1992 and 1993.